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The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2024 offers an in-depth analysis of global energy trends, emphasizing the shift towards clean energy, growing energy demand, and the effects of geopolitical conflicts.

Key Highlights:

• Economic Growth:
  • India was the fastest-growing major economy in 2023 with a 7.8% growth rate.
  • On track to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028.
  • Surpassed China in 2023 to become the most populous country globally, despite a fertility rate below replacement level.
• Energy Demand Surge:
  • India is projected to experience the highest increase in energy demand over the next decade.
  • By 2035, India’s total energy demand is expected to rise by 35%, driven by rapid industrialization, urbanization, and increased living standards.
• Urbanization and Infrastructure Growth:
  • Over 12,000 cars are expected to be added to Indian roads daily by 2035.
  • Built-up space is set to increase by over 1 billion square meters annually, surpassing the total built space of South Africa.
• Industrial Expansion:
  • Iron and steel production is expected to grow by 70% by 2035.
  • Cement output is set to increase by 55%.
  • Air conditioner stock to grow more than 4.5 times, with electricity demand from cooling expected to exceed Mexico’s total consumption in 2035.
• Energy Supply & Coal:
  • India’s electricity generation capacity is projected to nearly triple to 1,400 GW by 2035.
  • Coal remains a dominant energy source despite growth in renewables:
    • Coal-fired power capacity will increase by 60 GW by 2030.
    • Coal will continue to account for over 30% of electricity generation even as solar PV expands.
    • By 2035, coal use in industries like steel and cement will grow by 50%.
• Renewable Energy & Clean Tech:
  • India is on track to become a global leader in renewable energy, with a nearly 3x increase in electricity generation capacity.
  • The country is expected to have the world’s third-largest installed battery storage capacity by 2030.
  • By 2030, low-emission energy sources (solar, wind, nuclear) are expected to generate over 50% of India’s electricity.
• Electric Vehicles & Oil Demand:
  • The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to peak India’s oil demand by the 2030s, reducing reliance on oil for transportation.
  • Oil demand for transport will decline as EVs proliferate, though demand for oil in other sectors (e.g., petrochemicals) will continue.
• Net Zero Target:
  • India aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070.
  • By 2035, clean energy generation could be 20% higher than current policy projections, thanks to electric mobility, hydrogen use, and improved energy efficiency.
  • CO2 emissions are projected to be 25% lower than under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
• Policy Support:
  • India’s clean energy goals are backed by government initiatives, such as:
    • PM-KUSUM scheme for solar energy in agriculture.
    • National Solar Mission.
    • Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme to boost domestic solar PV manufacturing.
• Global Energy Trends:
  • Geopolitical Risks: Global energy security remains affected by geopolitical tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions).
  • Energy Transition: Global shift toward clean energy, with solar and wind power investments accelerating.
  • Oil & Gas Surplus: Oil and LNG supply expected to increase, putting downward pressure on prices by the late 2020s.
  • Electric Mobility: EVs projected to account for 50% of new car sales by 2030.
  • Energy Efficiency: Despite efforts, global targets for doubling energy efficiency by 2030 are unlikely to be met with current policies.

IEA Overview:

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) provides analysis and policy advice on energy security, economic development, and environmental sustainability.
• Established in 1974, it now includes 31 member countries and 13 association countries, including India.
• Major publications: World Energy Outlook, India Energy Outlook, World Energy Investment Report.