Why is it in the News?

In a study published recently, researchers analyzed more than 500 future emissions scenarios the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessed in its latest reports.

About the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

• The IPCC was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
• It is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change.
• It is a key source of scientific information and technical guidance to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement.
• The IPCC provides governments with scientific information for use in developing climate policies.
• The IPCC currently has 195 members.
• The IPCC does not undertake new research. Instead, it synthesizes published and peer-reviewed literature to develop a comprehensive assessment of scientific understanding.
  • These assessments are published in IPCC reports.
  • They are subject to multiple drafting and review processes to promote an objective, comprehensive, and transparent assessment of current knowledge.
• The IPCC’s work is guided by principles and procedures that govern all main activities of the organization.
• IPCC member governments and observer organizations nominate experts and the IPCC's scientific governing body, the IPCC Bureau, selects authors and editors with expertise in a range of scientific, technical, and socio-economic fields.

What are IPCC Assessment Reports?

• Typically, IPCC reports comprise three Working Group reports:
  • One on physical science
  • One on climate adaptation, and
  • One on mitigation action.
• One synthesis report consolidates findings from the three Working Group reports.
• Then there are thematic special reports.
• Each report assesses climate-related scientific literature to capture the state of scientific, technical, and socio-economic knowledge on climate change.
• The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7).

How Does it Assess Future Scenarios?

• The IPCC uses ‘modelled pathways’ to estimate what it will take to limit the warming of the earth’s surface.
• These pathways are drawn using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that describe human and earth systems.
• IAMs are complex models that examine possible futures of the energy and climate systems and economies.
• Its macroeconomic models can point to future growth levels in terms of GDP;
  • Its energy models can project future consumption
  • Vegetation models can examine land-use changes; and
  • Earth-system models use the laws of physics to understand how climate evolves.
• With such integration across disciplines, IAMs are meant to provide policy-relevant guidelines on climate action.
• However, these models also have shortcomings. They prioritize least-cost assessments — for example, the absolute cost of setting up a solar plant or undertaking afforestation in India is lower than in the U.S.
• However, experts have said they could exercise the option of enabling countries to equitably share the burden of action, where the richest undertake more drastic mitigation action more immediately.

About the Latest Study:

• Conducted by a team of specialists from Bengaluru and Chennai, the study scrutinized 556 scenarios outlined in the IPCC's AR6 report.
• Their findings indicate that by 2050, per-capita GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, West Asia, and other parts of Asia will remain below the global average.
• Collectively, these regions account for 60% of the global population.
• Additionally, the study highlighted disparities in the consumption of goods and services, as well as energy and fossil fuel consumption, between the Global North and the Global South.

Why Does Equity Matter?

• Equity is crucial in climate action as per the UNFCCC, which mandates developed nations to lead in combating climate change.
• However, current modeling approaches often overlook equity, burdening poorer nations disproportionately.
• Researchers highlight the need for modeling techniques that prioritize climate justice and equitable distribution of responsibilities.
• They argue that mitigation pathways should ensure developed regions accelerate towards net negative emissions and allocate carbon budgets to less developed regions.
• Addressing this gap requires a paradigm shift in scenario building, emphasizing both equity and environmental sustainability.
• This approach is vital for fostering global cooperation and achieving meaningful climate action.