Why is it in the News?

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recently forecasted an 83% likelihood that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) will move into a neutral range between April and June 2024.

What is the Oceanic Niño Index?

• The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña, which are opposite phases of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short.
  • NOAA is a US governmental agency responsible for monitoring and researching the Earth's oceans, atmosphere, and climate, and providing weather forecasts and environmental data.
• The ONI is the difference between a three-month running average of the sea surface temperature averaged over an area of the ocean from 120 West to 170 West longitude along the equator and the long-term average for the same three months.
• NOAA considers El Niño conditions to be present when the Oceanic Niño Index is +0.5 or higher, indicating the east-central tropical Pacific is significantly warmer than usual.
• La Niña conditions exist when the Oceanic Niño Index is -0.5 or lower, indicating the region is cooler than usual.

What is El Niño and La Niña?

• El Niño and La Niña are two natural climate phenomena that occur in the Pacific Ocean, characterized by fluctuations in ocean surface temperatures.
• They are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which impacts global weather patterns.
  • El Niño refers to the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
    • This warming causes changes in atmospheric pressure and wind patterns, which can lead to drought conditions in parts of South America and heavy rainfall in other regions, such as the southern United States.
  • La Niña is the opposite phase of the ENSO cycle, characterized by cooler-than-average ocean surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
    • This results in the strengthening of normal trade winds, causing increased rainfall in some regions, such as Indonesia and northern Australia, and drier conditions in other areas, including the southwestern United States.

Effects of El Niño and La Niña on India:

• Both El Niño and La Niña have significant impacts on India's climate, particularly during the monsoon season.
• El Niño events often lead to weaker monsoon winds and reduced rainfall in India, causing droughts and impacting agricultural production.
• On the other hand, La Niña events typically result in stronger monsoon winds and higher rainfall, leading to better agricultural yields.
  • However, excessive rainfall can also cause floods and landslides in some regions.
• Monitoring and predicting the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events is crucial for India's weather forecasting and agricultural planning.
• Accurate predictions enable authorities to take necessary measures to mitigate potential adverse effects on agriculture and infrastructure.

What is the News ?

According to recent data, the cost of meals rose by 65% in five years, wages by just 37% in the last five years.

Facts About:

• In Mumbai, the cost of a vegetarian thali surged 65% in five years, while income for laborers and salaried workers in urban Maharashtra increased only 37% and 28%, respectively. This discrepancy is making essential food items unaffordable, leading to compromised meals.

What is Thalinomics?

• Thalinomics is a term coined by an Indian economist and former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India, Arvind Subramanian.
• It refers to a concept that involves analyzing changes in the cost of a vegetarian thali (a meal consisting of a variety of dishes served on a single plate) to gain insights into the trends and dynamics of food inflation and affordability.
• It involves tracking the prices of key ingredients that constitute a thali, such as cereals, pulses, vegetables, and other essential items.
• This concept is particularly relevant in countries like India, where food affordability and inflation are significant concerns for a large population.

Key insights: A case study of Mumbai and urban Maharashtra

• Rising Cost of Thali: The cost of preparing a home-cooked vegetarian thali in Mumbai has increased significantly by 65% over the past five years. This increase is attributed to rising prices of essential ingredients like rice, dal, vegetables, and other items that constitute a thali.
• Income Growth: Over the same five-year period, the average wage earned by casual laborers in urban Maharashtra increased by 37%, while the average salary of regular salaried workers increased by 28%. These income growth rates reflect the changes in earnings for these two categories of workers.
• Disparity Between Costs and Income: While the cost of a thali increased by 65%, income growth for casual laborers and salaried workers was significantly lower, at 37% and 28%, respectively.
• Affordability Challenge: The disparity between rising costs and income growth has resulted in essential food items becoming increasingly unaffordable for households. This affordability challenge can lead to reduced portion sizes or a compromise in the variety and nutritional quality of meals.
• Impact on Budget Share: The study also analyzes the portion of monthly wages or salaries required to afford two thalis every day for a month. This share increased from 22.5% of a casual laborer’s monthly earnings in 2018 to 27.2% in 2023. For salaried employees, it increased from 9.9% to 12.8% over the same period.

• Incomplete Data: Data limitations, particularly regarding the absence of certain ingredients like spices and ghee in the analysis, This suggests that the actual cost of making a thali could be even higher than the calculated figures.

Key aspects of the relationship between thali prices and inflation

• Inflation and Ingredient Prices: The prices of ingredients like rice, dal, vegetables, and oil can be affected by inflation. If the prices of these essential ingredients rise due to inflationary pressures, the overall cost of preparing a thali would increase.
• Food Inflation: The cost of a thali, which is composed of various food items, is directly influenced by food inflation. If there’s high food inflation, it can significantly impact the affordability of thalis and other meals.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics: Inflation can be driven by supply and demand imbalances. If there’s a shortage of certain ingredients due to supply disruptions (e.g., poor harvests or transportation issues), prices can rise. Similarly, changes in consumer demand patterns can affect the prices of specific ingredients, further impacting thali costs.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks often use monetary policy tools to control inflation. Interest rate adjustments, money supply regulation, and other measures can impact inflation rates. High inflation rates can lead to increased production costs for farmers and manufacturers, which may trickle down to the prices of thali ingredients.
• Income Effects: Inflation can impact consumers’ purchasing power. When inflation outpaces income growth, households might need to allocate a larger portion of their income to cover basic expenses like food. This can particularly affect lower-income households, leading to affordability challenges for items like thalis.
• Regional Variation: Inflation rates can vary regionally and even locally. Different regions might experience different rates of inflation due to factors like supply chain disruptions, local economic conditions, and government policies.
• Government Policies: Government policies such as subsidies, import/export regulations, and agricultural policies can influence ingredient prices and, consequently, the cost of preparing a thali. These policies can impact the supply and availability of key ingredients.

Implications of the higher cost of a thali

• Nutritional Impact: The rising cost of thali ingredients can lead to compromised nutritional intake as households might cut back on certain items to manage expenses. This can result in inadequate diets and potential health implications.
• Affordability Strain: As thali prices escalate, households may face financial strain by allocating a larger portion of their income to food expenses. This can limit their ability to save, invest, and engage in non-essential expenditures.
• Dietary Diversity: Increased thali costs can potentially lead to reduced dietary diversity as households might opt for cheaper, less nutritious alternatives, affecting overall dietary quality.
• Balanced Meals: Higher thali costs might lead to smaller portions or fewer items in the thali, disrupting the balance of a typical meal and potentially impacting satiety and nutritional completeness.
• Quality of Life: Reduced dietary quality due to affordability challenges can have broader implications for individuals’ quality of life, health, and overall well-being.
• Economic Struggles: For households with limited disposable income, the burden of increased thali costs can exacerbate economic struggles and hinder progress.

Way forward

• Policy Interventions: Implement policies to address the widening gap between thali costs and income growth, ensuring that essential food remains affordable.
• Income Enhancement: Focus on raising wages for casual laborers and salaried workers to match the rising cost of thalis.
• Affordability Measures: Establish measures to mitigate the impact of expensive thalis on households, considering subsidies or targeted assistance.
• Nutrition Awareness: Launch campaigns to educate households about maintaining nutritious diets even when faced with affordability challenges.
• Gender-Inclusive Approach: Address gender disparities by formulating policies that empower women economically.
• Data-Driven Approach: Base policies on accurate and up-to-date data on food prices, wages, and consumption patterns.
• Food Security Initiatives: Strengthen food security programs to ensure access to nutritious food despite thali cost increases.
• Policy Evaluation: Continuously assess the effectiveness of policies in addressing thali affordability and overall well-being.

Conclusion

• The shifting dynamics between escalating costs and relatively stagnant income pose a serious challenge to maintaining a nutritionally balanced diet. As prices continue to rise, a more comprehensive approach is crucial to ensuring that affordable nutrition remains within reach for all strata of society.

Source: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/price-of-food-inflation-42483