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Climate change to put APAC GDP on thin ice with 41% melt by 2100.

Key Highlights:

• Economic Losses Due to Climate Change:
  • APAC Region: High-end greenhouse gas emissions could reduce GDP by 17% by 2070 and 41% by 2100.
  • India: Projected to experience a 24.7% GDP loss by 2070, with neighboring countries like Bangladesh (30.5%), Vietnam (30.2%), and Indonesia (26.8%) facing even steeper declines.
• Major Drivers of Economic Losses:
  • Sea-Level Rise: Up to 300 million people at risk of coastal flooding by 2070. Annual damages could reach $3 trillion by 2070.
  • Labour Productivity: The APAC region could lose 4.9% of GDP from reduced labour productivity, with India facing a sharper 11.6% loss.
  • Cooling Demand: Rising temperatures could reduce regional GDP by 3.3%, but India's cooling demands could cut its GDP by 5.1%.
  • Flooding and Storms: Increased rainfall and storm intensity will exacerbate flooding and landslides, particularly in mountainous regions like the India-China border, where landslides could rise by 30-70% under severe warming.
• Impact on Key Sectors:
  • River Flooding: By 2070, annual riverine flooding could cause $1.3 trillion in damages across the APAC, affecting over 110 million people. India could face over $1,100 billion in flood-related damages annually.
  • Forest Productivity: Climate change could reduce forest productivity by 10-30% by 2070 across APAC. India could see losses over 25%, making it one of the hardest-hit countries, alongside Vietnam and Southeast Asia.
• Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities:
  • Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding could lead to widespread economic damage, with India expected to suffer significant losses, particularly in coastal areas.
  • Ecosystem Threats: Intensified storms, rainfall, and landslides will affect ecosystems, forests, and agriculture across the region.
• Climate Change and Adaptation Needs:
  • Investment Requirements: Developing Asia requires $102–431 billion annually for climate adaptation, far exceeding the $34 billion tracked from 2021 to 2022.
  • Private Investment: The report highlights the need for greater private climate investment and regulatory reforms to attract capital for adaptation initiatives.
  • Renewable Energy: APAC is well-positioned to embrace renewable energy for a net-zero transition, and the use of carbon markets could help achieve climate goals cost-effectively.
• Regional Net-Zero Goals and Progress:
  • Net-Zero Targets: 36 out of 44 Asian economies have set net-zero emissions targets, but only 4 have legally committed to these goals. India and China target 2070 and 2060, respectively, while many OECD countries aim for 2050 targets.
  • Policy Gaps: Developing Asia needs clearer policies and increased financing to meet climate ambitions. Institutions like ADB are crucial in supporting these efforts.
• Action Plan for the Future:
  • Urgent Climate Action: The report stresses the importance of coordinated action to address escalating climate risks.
  • Enhanced Adaptation Finance: There is a need to scale up adaptation-focused finance to tackle the growing climate challenges facing the region.

India's Vulnerability and Climate Challenges:

• Labour Impact: India is expected to experience a 11.6% GDP loss due to declining labour productivity, the highest among APAC countries.
• Cooling Demands: A 5.1% reduction in GDP due to increased cooling demand.
• Flood Damage: India’s flood-related losses could surpass $1.1 trillion annually by 2070, with damages to residential and commercial properties.