In News:

India has been witnessing significant demographic changes due to decades of family planning policies. This has led to declining fertility rates in certain States, particularly in the southern and smaller northern regions.

Introduction: Demographic Shift in India

• Southern States’ Fertility Trends: States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana have fertility rates below the replacement level (around 1.4–1.5), while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh have higher fertility rates (2.6–3).
• Ageing Population: Southern States face the challenge of an ageing population, with Kerala projected to have 22.8% of its population aged 60+ by 2036, while Bihar will have only 11%.

Economic and Health Impact of Population Decline

• Economic Consequences:
  • Dependency Ratio: The old-age dependency ratio (the number of elderly for every 100 working-age individuals) has increased significantly in some States. Kerala, for example, had a ratio of 26.1 in 2021, signaling a crisis point.
  • Loss of Demographic Dividend: States with declining fertility rates face the loss of a demographic dividend, i.e., the economic benefit from a large working-age population, which is increasingly burdened by elderly dependents.
  • Health Expenditure: Rising healthcare costs, especially for cardiovascular diseases in southern States, will strain public health systems. The southern States, although comprising one-fifth of India's population, spent 32% of the country’s total out-of-pocket expenditure on cardiovascular diseases in 2017-18.
• Challenges of Low Fertility:
  • Declining Labour Force Participation: Policies encouraging higher fertility may also reduce women’s labour force participation, undermining the economic growth of these States.
  • Economic Pressures: Southern States, despite higher tax contributions, face a diminished share of central resources due to slower population growth. This is a point of concern in inter-State fiscal relations.

Political Implications of Uneven Population Growth

• Impact on Federal Structure:
  • The uneven population growth across States will lead to significant changes in the delimitation of constituencies after the current freeze on seat allocation in Parliament expires in 2026.
  • Redistribution of Lok Sabha Seats: Northern States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will likely gain more seats, while southern States like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh will lose seats due to their declining population shares.
• Challenges in Federal Relations:
  • Southern States’ economic contributions through taxes are disproportionate to the resources they receive from the central pool, leading to growing tensions between high-growth and slow-growth regions.
  • The shift in political power post-delimitation could increase regional disparities, potentially leading to political tensions between States.

Solutions and Policy Recommendations

• Pro-Natalist Policies:
  • Southern States are considering pro-natalist policies to incentivize higher fertility rates. However, such measures have been largely unsuccessful internationally, especially when women’s economic independence and educational choices are restricted.
  • International Experience: Attempts to incentivize childbearing, without addressing broader socio-economic factors like gender equality, have generally failed in other nations. Maternity benefits, gender-neutral parental leave, and childcare support are key to increasing fertility sustainably.
• Gender Equity and Work-Family Balance:
  • Work-family policies that support paid maternity and paternity leaves, affordable childcare, and gender-neutral employment policies are essential to empower women to balance family and career.
  • Studies indicate that countries with higher gender equity have better fertility rates because women are less likely to forgo childbearing for career reasons.
• Increasing Retirement Age:
  • One way to reduce the old-age dependency ratio is to increase the retirement age, which would allow older workers to remain employed longer and support a sustainable economy.
  • Social Security and pension reforms should also be considered to accommodate the ageing workforce and reduce the economic burden on younger generations.
• Managing Migration:
  • Migration policies should be adjusted to manage the influx of economic migrants into southern States, who contribute to the economy but continue to be counted in their home States for fiscal and political purposes.
  • Migration-based policy reforms could address the challenge of an ageing population in states with declining fertility while ensuring equitable resource distribution across States.

Why is it in the News?

The projection by the UN Population Division is that India will have a population of close to 1.7 billion by 2065 before it starts declining.

Context:

• In recent findings, The Lancet has projected a decline in India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 1.29 by 2051, contrasting with the government's technical group estimate of 1.94 for 2021-2025, and 1.73 for 2031-2035.
• Additionally, the UN Population Division predicts India's population will be near 1.7 billion by 2065, surpassing The Lancet's projections.
• These diverging forecasts suggest that India's population may stabilize below 1.7 billion well before 2065.

Insights into Demographic Projections:

• According to the UN Population Division, India is expected to approach a population of nearly 1.7 billion by 2065, followed by stabilization. In contrast, The Lancet report forecasts a decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) to 1.29 by 2051.
• These projections signal a significant evolution in India's population dynamics, suggesting broader implications beyond population size.
• Government projections and data from NFHS 5 further corroborate this trend, indicating a declining trajectory in the TFR and hinting at the possibility of population stabilization occurring sooner than expected.

Implications of Decreasing Total Fertility Rate (TFR):

• Economic Impact: The decline in TFR alters the age distribution, resulting in fewer children and more working-age adults.
  • Initially, this demographic shift presents an economic opportunity, fostering growth through increased productivity and surplus income.
• Dependency Ratio: A reduced TFR lowers the dependency ratio, lessening the burden on the working-age population to support dependents.
  • This enhances economic productivity and allows for better resource allocation towards development endeavors.
  • However, aging populations may necessitate adjustments in healthcare and social welfare policies.
• Labour Market Dynamics: Demographic changes influence employment patterns and wage structures.
  • A larger working-age cohort relative to dependents may increase labor supply, affecting wage levels.
  • Shifts from agriculture to other sectors may alter employment opportunities and skill requirements.
• Social Welfare and Healthcare: Aging populations due to declining fertility rates require tailored social welfare and healthcare services.
  • This includes pension schemes, long-term care facilities, and healthcare programs addressing age-related ailments, essential for ensuring the well-being of the elderly.
• Education and Human Capital: Decreasing TFR reduces the demand for primary and secondary education infrastructure.
  • However, investments in higher education and skill development become crucial to equip the smaller cohort of young adults with the necessary skills for a competitive workforce.

How India’s Decreasing Fertility Rate Poses Advantages:

• Enhanced Labor Productivity: A declining total fertility rate (TFR) results in a demographic dividend, with a larger proportion of the population in the working-age bracket compared to dependents.
  • This surplus labor force can drive heightened productivity across various sectors, fostering innovation, specialization, and overall economic growth.
• Capital Accumulation and Investment: Lower fertility rates prompt households to channel more resources towards the education and well-being of fewer children.
  • This leads to increased savings and investment at the household level, facilitating capital formation and investments in critical areas such as infrastructure, technology, and human capital.
• Efficient Resource Allocation: Decreasing TFR necessitates a shift in resource allocation away from childcare and education expenses for larger families towards investments in education, skill development, and healthcare for a smaller number of children.
  • This reallocation optimizes the utilization of public funds and private investments, fostering human capital development and long-term productivity gains.
• Regional Development and Urbanization: Declining fertility rates often coincide with urbanization and regional development, with urban centers emerging as economic hubs.
  • The concentration of populations in urban areas promotes economies of scale, knowledge sharing, and networking opportunities, stimulating entrepreneurship and industry growth.
• International Competitiveness: A transition to lower fertility rates enhances a nation’s international competitiveness by cultivating a younger, better-educated workforce.
  • Such a workforce is more adept at adapting to technological advancements, competing in global markets, and attracting foreign investment.
  • Additionally, a favorable demographic profile can strengthen a country’s creditworthiness, investor confidence, and long-term economic resilience.

Way Forward:

• Empowering Women and Marginalized Communities: Prioritize skill development initiatives, especially targeting women and underprivileged groups, to adapt to demographic shifts.
  • While declining fertility rates may ease pressure on educational systems, efforts must focus on reducing dropout rates in higher education and promoting women's workforce participation.
• Sectoral and Geographical Workforce Redistribution: Respond to workforce transitions from agriculture to industrial and service sectors by implementing skill development programs, particularly for marginalized populations.
  • Facilitate spatial redistribution of labor, especially north-south migration, to balance labor markets, enhance working conditions, and promote wage equality.
• Strengthening Healthcare Preparedness: With increasing life expectancy, anticipate challenges associated with an aging population and rising healthcare needs.
  • Develop robust healthcare infrastructure and formulate policies tailored to address the requirements of the elderly, ensuring effective utilization of the demographic dividend.

Conclusion

India stands at a crucial crossroads in its socio-economic evolution marked by its demographic transition. Addressing the challenges and opportunities inherent in this transition demands strategic policy interventions, emphasizing skill development, gender equality, labor reallocation, and healthcare readiness. By navigating this transition with foresight and flexibility, India can unlock its full potential for long-term growth and development, positioning itself effectively on the global landscape.

Why is it in the News?

1st March is celebrated as International Waste Pickers Day in memory of the massacre in Colombia in which 11 workers were brutally killed at the University of Barranquilla.

Context:

• 1st March is celebrated as International Waste Pickers Day in memory of the massacre in Colombia in which 11 workers were brutally killed at the University of Barranquilla.
• While these individuals play vital roles in waste management, they endure systematic marginalization, health risks, and a lack of legal safeguards.
• Hence, delving into the often unnoticed realm of informal waste pickers in India becomes imperative to grasp their indispensable yet overlooked contributions to waste management systems.

What is the Informal Sector in Waste Management?

• The International Labour Organization (ILO) defines the informal sector in waste management as ‘individuals or small and micro-enterprises that intervene in waste management without being registered and without being formally charged with providing waste management services’.
• These workers are the primary collectors of recyclable waste, playing a critical role in waste management and resource efficiency by collecting, sorting, trading, and sometimes even reinserting discarded waste back into the economy.
• Yet, they face systemic marginalization due to non-recognition, non-representation, and exclusion from social security schemes and legal protection frameworks.

What Does the Data Reveal?

• Although precise figures on informal waste pickers are elusive, the Centre for Science and Environment suggests that approximately 5%–2% of the urban population worldwide is involved in the informal waste economy.
• A significant portion comprises vulnerable demographics such as women, children, and the elderly, many of whom are disabled, residing within the most impoverished urban communities. Tragically, they frequently endure instances of violence and sexual harassment.
• According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey 2017-18, India's urban workforce includes nearly 1.5 million waste pickers, with approximately half a million being women.

What are the Challenges Faced by Informal Waste Pickers?

• Systemic Marginalization: Informal waste pickers, predominantly consisting of women, children, and the elderly, face profound marginalization within the waste management ecosystem.
  • According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2017-18, India's urban workforce includes nearly 1.5 million waste pickers, with half being women.
  • Engaging in hazardous work, these individuals collect an average of 60 kg to 90 kg of waste daily without adequate safety measures.
  • Their marginalized position within the caste hierarchy exacerbates their vulnerability, leading to health issues such as dermatological and respiratory problems, as well as frequent injuries.
• Economic Instability: Irregular employment, low wages, and susceptibility to exploitation contribute to a cycle of poverty that is challenging to break.
  • The 2023 report from the Alliance of Indian Waste Pickers (AIW) underscores the impact of private sector involvement in municipal solid waste management.
  • With the adoption of expensive machinery and competitive rates offered to waste generators, private entities marginalize informal pickers, forcing them into hazardous waste collection activities such as scavenging in dump sites.
  • This not only heightens health risks but also undermines their income and social standing.
• Lack of Recognition and Representation: The invisibility of informal waste pickers within policy and legal frameworks exacerbates their plight.
  • Despite playing a vital role in waste management systems, they are often overlooked in decision-making processes.
  • Their contributions are not acknowledged, and they lack representation in discussions regarding waste management policies, leaving them without legal protections, social security, and a voice in shaping the systems they contribute to.
• Exclusion from Formal Waste Management Systems: The involvement of private entities in municipal solid waste management, while introducing technological advancements, further isolates informal waste pickers.
  • Dump sites are frequently restricted, limiting their access and pushing them into greater vulnerability.
  • As highlighted by the AIW, the privatization of waste management sidelines informal pickers, posing threats to their health, income, and overall well-being.
  • This exclusionary approach deepens the gap between formal and informal waste management sectors.

What is the Significance of Informal Waste Pickers in Plastic Management?

• Global Impact: Waste pickers play a pivotal role in plastic waste management worldwide, responsible for collecting and recovering up to 60% of all plastic waste, as emphasized in the 2022 World Economic Forum report.
• Underrecognized Contribution: Despite their vital role in sustainable recycling efforts, waste pickers' contributions often go unacknowledged, and they struggle to secure adequate livelihoods.
• Quantifiable Contribution: Reports from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Pew indicate that informal waste pickers gathered 27 million metric tonnes of plastic waste in 2016 alone, constituting 59% of all plastic material collected for recycling. This significant effort prevents plastic from ending up in landfills or oceans.
• Relevance in India: With increasing per capita plastic waste generation in India, the role of waste pickers becomes even more crucial. India is among the top 12 countries responsible for 52% of the world's mismanaged waste, according to a recent CPCB report.
• Utilizing Traditional Knowledge: Waste pickers possess valuable traditional knowledge about waste handling, which could greatly enhance the effectiveness of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems if incorporated effectively.
• Rethinking EPR Frameworks: Given their substantial contribution, it is imperative to reassess the formulation of EPR norms to ensure the inclusion and empowerment of millions of informal waste pickers within the new legal framework.

What is the Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)?

• EPR presents a hopeful framework by shifting the burden of waste management from municipal bodies to commercial waste producers.
• It marks a departure from conventional "end-of-the-pipe" waste management strategies, incentivizing producers to embrace environmentally friendly practices, minimize waste production, and engage in recycling initiatives.
• In principle, EPR can promote social inclusivity by recognizing the contributions of informal waste pickers and grassroots stakeholders.

Challenges and Considerations Regarding EPR with Informal Waste Pickers:

• Implementation Challenges: Despite its positive aims, the practical application of EPR has raised concerns about its impact on the informal waste sector.
  • Globalizing and Organizing Women in Informal Employment (WIEGO) notes that EPR guidelines often redirect waste away from the informal sector, jeopardizing the livelihoods of informal waste pickers and potentially leading to widespread displacement.
  • The aspiration for social inclusion through EPR faces a harsh reality, where the informal sector, vital to waste management, risks marginalization.
• Neglect of Informal Waste Pickers: The Alliance of Indian Waste Pickers (AIW) has observed a significant oversight in both the formulation and execution of EPR guidelines in India.
  • While stakeholders identified in the guidelines include various entities such as the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), producers, brand owners, industry associations, civil society organizations, and citizens, there is a glaring absence of specific inclusion of informal waste pickers or their representative organizations.
  • This omission contradicts the principles of social justice and sustainability that EPR aims to uphold.
• Conflict Between Solid Waste Management Rules and EPR Guidelines: A conflict arises between the Solid Waste Management Rules of 2016 and the EPR Guidelines of 2022, exacerbating the challenges faced by informal waste pickers.
  • While the former mandates the involvement of waste pickers in municipal solid waste management systems, the latter fails to prioritize their participation.
  • This discrepancy highlights the necessity for a cohesive and integrated approach to waste management policies, wherein the rights and contributions of informal waste pickers are duly recognized and safeguarded.

Way Ahead:

• Revisiting EPR Policies: To realize the potential of EPR in achieving sustainable waste management and social equity, a reevaluation of its policies is essential.
  • Acknowledging the traditional knowledge held by waste pickers and involving them in decision-making processes can augment the efficacy of EPR frameworks.
  • Furthermore, stakeholders, including producers and policymakers, should actively collaborate with informal waste pickers and their representative bodies to facilitate a fair and equitable transition.
• Plastic Treaty and Equitable Transition: On a global scale, waste pickers play a significant role in sustainable recycling, collecting, and recovering up to 60% of all plastic waste.
  • Despite their invaluable contributions, their labour is often undervalued, and they struggle to sustain themselves financially.
  • As the global community prepares for the imminent Plastic Treaty aimed at addressing plastic pollution, it is imperative to ensure a just transition for these workers.
  • This entails recognizing their contributions and safeguarding their livelihoods, thereby fostering a more inclusive and equitable approach to plastic management.

Conclusion

As India grapples with escalating plastic waste generation, the imperative of integrating informal waste pickers into waste management frameworks becomes ever more pronounced.

Given the valuable traditional knowledge held by these workers, there is a clear opportunity to bolster the effectiveness of EPR systems through a reevaluation of EPR norms and the active engagement of millions of informal waste pickers within a legal framework. It is essential for international collaboration and local endeavours to intersect, prioritizing the recognition, protection, and empowerment of these often overlooked workers. This convergence holds the potential to foster a more inclusive and robust waste management ecosystem.