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After 15 months of war triggered by Hamas' October 2023 attack on Israel, a ceasefire agreement has been brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the US, marking a fragile but significant pause in one of the most destructive phases of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Key Features of the Ceasefire Agreement

The agreement is based on a three-phase framework proposed by US President Joe Biden in June 2024 and endorsed by the UN Security Council:

Phase I (42 days)

• Complete ceasefire and withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas in Gaza.
• Release of 33 Israeli hostages (women, elderly, injured) by Hamas.
• Release of 900–1,650 Palestinian prisoners, including minors and those detained since October 7, 2023.
• Daily entry of 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza.
• Partial Israeli withdrawal from key corridors like Netzarim (splitting Gaza) and parts of the Philadelphi Corridor (Gaza-Egypt border).

Phase II

• Release of remaining hostages, primarily male soldiers.
• Complete Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
• Details to be negotiated during Phase I; no written guarantees for its execution.

Phase III

• Return of the remains of deceased hostages.
• Initiation of a multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision.

Challenges to Implementation

Fragile Political Consensus in Israel

• Far-right ministers (e.g., Itamar Ben-Gvir) oppose the deal, threatening to quit the government.
• Prime Minister Netanyahu faces pressure from both hawks demanding a full military victory and moderates seeking peace.

Hamas' Demands

• Seeks permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal, making it unwilling to release all hostages without guarantees.
• Israel, in contrast, insists on neutralizing Hamas militarily.

Unclear Future Governance of Gaza

• Israel rejects both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority (PA) as future administrators.
• Global consensus supports Palestinian-led governance, but viable alternatives remain elusive.

Wider Geopolitical Impact

Reshaping West Asia

• Conflict escalated tensions with Hezbollah (Lebanon) and drew Israel into direct conflict with Iran.
• Iran’s influence weakened due to losses in Hezbollah and Syria.
• Assad regime in Syria collapsed, altering regional power dynamics.

Diplomatic Repercussions for Israel

• Despite military dominance, Israel faces global condemnation over civilian casualties.
• PM Netanyahu is under scrutiny at the ICC (war crimes) and ICJ (genocide allegations).
• Israel is now diplomatically isolated, particularly after the humanitarian toll in Gaza.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

• Over 64,000 Palestinians killed (The Lancet, 2024), including large numbers of civilians.
• Massive destruction of infrastructure—schools, hospitals, homes—rendering Gaza nearly uninhabitable.
• Reconstruction hinges on sustained peace and international aid.

Conclusion

The ceasefire presents a rare opportunity for de-escalation in a deeply entrenched conflict. However, distrust between parties, domestic political constraints, and regional rivalries pose significant risks to its sustainability. A durable peace can only emerge through inclusive political dialogue, humanitarian prioritization, and movement toward a two-state solution.