Why is it in the News?

The working paper released by the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister makes an erroneous assertion regarding the growth of the Muslim population.

Context:

• The discussion on India's religious demographics is frequently marred by sensationalism and misinterpretation, often driven by media and political narratives.
• A recent working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), titled "Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)," has been a particular target of such distortions.
• Hence, it is crucial to critically examine the findings and interpretations of the EAC-PM's working paper, placing them within the broader socio-economic dynamics and demographic trends.

Composition of the Population of various communities highlighted by EAC:

• The population composition of various communities in the region has changed between 1950 and 2015, as highlighted by the data:
• In terms of absolute numbers, the Hindu population saw a substantial increase of 701 million individuals, while the Muslim population grew by 146 million.
• However, when looking at proportional changes, the Hindu population experienced a decrease of 6.64 percentage points, from 84.7% in 1950 to 78.06% in 2015.
  • Conversely, the Muslim population's proportion increased by 4.25, rising from 9.84% in 1950 to 14.09% in 2015.
• Despite these shifts in proportions, the Hindu population remains numerically larger than the Muslim population as of 2015.

What does the 2011 census say?

According to the 2011 census, the following changes in the proportions of various religious communities were observed in comparison to the 2001 census:

• The Hindu population's proportion relative to the total population decreased by 0.7 percentage points.
• The Sikh population's proportion saw a decline of 0.2 percentage points.
• The Buddhist population's proportion decreased by 0.1 percentage points.
• On the other hand, the Muslim population's proportion relative to the total population increased by 0.8 percentage points.
• The proportions of the Christian and Jain communities underwent no significant change during the 2001-2011 period.

A Study on Socio-Economic Aspects and Population Growth in the  Muslim Communities:

The Impact of Education:

• Education significantly influences fertility rates and overall population growth. Communities with higher educational attainment, particularly among women, generally exhibit lower fertility rates.
• Education equips individuals with knowledge about family planning, reproductive health, and the economic implications of large families.
• In India, disparities in educational attainment among different religious communities contribute to variations in population growth rates.
• Historically, the Muslim community has encountered barriers to accessing quality education, leading to higher fertility rates compared to the Hindu community.
• This indicates that the higher population growth rate among Muslims is due to limited educational opportunities rather than religious doctrine.

Economic Conditions:

• Economic stability plays a crucial role in determining family size and population growth.
• Economically stable families tend to have fewer children, enabling them to invest more resources in each child's health, education, and overall well-being.
• In contrast, economically disadvantaged communities often exhibit higher fertility rates as a response to economic insecurity, viewing children as contributors to household income.
• The higher growth rate of the Muslim population in India can be attributed to lower average income levels and limited access to economic opportunities within the community.
• Addressing economic disparities is essential for moderating population growth and enhancing overall human development.

Access to Healthcare:

• Healthcare access, especially reproductive health services, is a key determinant of fertility rates.
• Communities with better access to healthcare services, including contraception and maternal healthcare, typically have lower fertility rates.
• The Muslim community in India has historically faced challenges in accessing healthcare services, contributing to higher fertility rates.
• Improving healthcare access for all communities is vital for achieving balanced population growth and improving quality of life.

Cultural Factors and Gender Norms:

• Cultural factors and gender norms also influence fertility rates. Traditional norms valuing large families and early marriage can lead to higher fertility rates in some communities.
• Promoting gender equality and empowering women to make informed reproductive choices are crucial for moderating population growth.
• Programs aimed at changing cultural attitudes towards family size and encouraging later marriages can significantly impact reducing fertility rates.

Urbanization and Migration:

• Urbanization and migration patterns affect population growth, with urban areas generally exhibiting lower fertility rates than rural areas due to better access to education, healthcare, and economic opportunities.
• Migration from rural to urban areas can lead to a decline in fertility rates as individuals adapt to urban socio-economic conditions.
• In India, the Muslim population is more concentrated in rural areas, which tend to have higher fertility rates.
• Promoting urbanization and integrating rural communities into urban settings can contribute to balanced population growth.

Human Development Indicators:

• Human development indicators, such as life expectancy, child mortality rates, and literacy rates, are closely linked to population growth.
• Communities with higher human development indicators tend to have lower fertility rates.
• The lag in human development indicators among the Muslim community compared to the Hindu community underscores the need for targeted interventions to improve education, healthcare, and economic opportunities for all.

Religious Demography in a Broader Context:

Historical Stability in Religious Composition:

• Historical data indicates that India's religious composition has remained relatively stable over the decades.
• The 2021 Pew Research Centre report, which analyzed Census data from 1951 to 2011, reveals that the proportions of India's major religious groups have shown remarkable stability since Partition.
• This stability counters claims of dramatic demographic shifts.  The Hindu population has consistently constituted a large majority, while the proportions of other religious groups, including Muslims, have grown at a predictable rate.
• This historical perspective underscores that changes in religious demography are gradual and not indicative of sudden or alarming shifts.

Projections and Future Trends:

• Projections by leading demographers offer a nuanced understanding of future demographic trends.
• In a 2005 study, P. N. Mari Bhat and Francis Zavier projected that the proportion of Muslims in India’s total population would peak at around 18.8% by 2101.
• This projection is based on historical trends and factors such as declining fertility rates and improvements in socio-economic conditions.
• Recent data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) shows a significant decline in Muslim fertility rates, suggesting that the peak proportion might be even smaller if similar studies were conducted today.
• These projections highlight that fears of Muslims overtaking Hindus in population numbers are unfounded and not supported by empirical evidence.

Socio-Economic Development and Demographic Trends:

• Socio-economic development plays a critical role in shaping demographic trends. Improved education, healthcare, and economic opportunities lead to lower fertility rates across all communities.
• The decline in Muslim fertility rates, as observed in the NFHS data, is a direct result of better access to education and healthcare.
• This trend is expected to continue as development efforts reach more communities.
• Therefore, socio-economic development is essential for achieving balanced population growth and should be the focus of policy interventions.

Conclusion

The sensationalism and misinterpretation of the EAC-PM working paper's findings can obstruct informed public discourse. Achieving an accurate understanding of population dynamics demands a nuanced examination of socio-economic conditions and demographic data. As India awaits updated Census data, it's imperative to promote a discourse on religious demography that is informed and balanced, free from divisive political narratives.