Introduction: The Need for Advanced Weather Forecasting

India is increasingly facing extreme weather events such as flooding and droughts, which have become more frequent and intense in recent years. According to a 2021 study by the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW), 40% of districts in India face alternating climatic hazards, where flood-prone areas also experience droughts, and vice versa. Moreover, a 64% increase in heavy rainfall days during the monsoon season has been recorded over the last decade.

Despite these challenges, India’s weather forecasting systems remain underdeveloped, particularly in flood-prone regions. While cyclone-prone areas benefit from comprehensive early warning systems, flood-prone regions are largely under-covered. To address these gaps and to prepare for more frequent climate risks, the Mission Mausam, launched in September 2024, aims to transform India's weather forecasting capabilities.

Key Objectives of Mission Mausam

Mission Mausam focuses on three main pillars:

• Increasing Weather Observation Networks
• Improving Weather Forecasting Models
• Investigating Weather Modification Techniques

This initiative is led by three institutions under the Ministry of Earth Sciences:

• India Meteorological Department (IMD)
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)
• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)

The mission is backed by an investment of ?2,000 crore and aims to address the growing complexity of India’s climate challenges.

1. Gaps in India's Current Weather Observation Network

Despite significant advances, India’s existing weather observation system has several gaps, particularly in terms of coverage and data accessibility.

Weather Radar Coverage

India currently operates 39 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), but their distribution is not optimal. Key regions that are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events are under-monitored:

• Western Coast: Only 5 radars monitor the entire western coastline, where cyclones are becoming more frequent and intense.
• Urban Centres: Cities like Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, and Jodhpur — which have experienced repeated flooding — lack adequate radar coverage.

Action Required:

• Expand Radar Coverage: Prioritise the installation of weather radars along the western coast and in urban centres with high climate risks.
• Improve Observation Platforms: In addition to radars, install other weather observation platforms such as wind profilers and radiometers to provide more comprehensive data.

Limited Data Access

At present, the data from India’s weather observation network is not fully accessible to researchers and innovators. This limits the ability to develop localised early warning systems and innovative solutions for climate resilience.

Action Required:

• Open Data Access: Make weather data available to researchers, academic institutions, and private sector innovators. This will encourage the development of analytical tools and localized solutions for extreme weather events.
• Global Best Practices: Following the examples of countries like the United States, United Kingdom, and France, which openly share weather data, India can foster innovation and improve its forecasting capabilities.

2. Strengthening Weather Forecasting Models

Improved weather forecasting models are essential for accurately predicting extreme weather events, including heavy rainfall, floods, and cyclones.

Machine Learning and Atmospheric Physics

Mission Mausam will enhance weather forecasting models through:

• Integration of Machine Learning: By incorporating machine learning techniques, India can improve prediction accuracy and lead times.
• Better Understanding of Atmospheric Physics: Improved scientific understanding of the atmosphere can lead to more accurate and reliable weather forecasts.

Action Required:

• Enhance Forecasting Capabilities: Focus on improving long-term and short-term weather predictions, especially for regions prone to extreme weather.
• Incorporate Technology: Leverage advanced technologies, including AI and machine learning, to predict weather patterns more accurately.

3. Improving Communication and Dissemination of Weather Information

Effective communication of weather warnings is essential for timely action by governments, businesses, and citizens.

Enhancing Warning Systems

Currently, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) disseminates weather warnings through various channels, including mobile applications and web portals. However, the effectiveness of these warnings can be improved.

Action Required:

• User-Friendly Warnings: Improve the interface of weather apps and websites, providing users with guidance on how to interpret warnings and take necessary precautions.
• Capacity Building: Create informational videos, media campaigns, and easy-to-understand guides to help citizens act upon warnings effectively.

Wider Use of Localised Decision Tools

Localized decision tools can be used to help communities in specific regions take proactive steps before, during, and after extreme weather events.

Action Required:

• Localized Early Warning Systems: Develop region-specific warning tools that integrate local knowledge with scientific forecasts, making them more effective for local populations.

4. Integrating Mission Mausam with Sectoral Planning

The success of Mission Mausam will depend on its integration with various sectoral policies, particularly in areas such as agriculture, water management, and energy.

Use Cases for Climate-Resilient Sectors

Data from the enhanced weather observation system can be used to:

• Support Agriculture: Weather forecasts can inform crop planning and irrigation management, helping farmers mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events.
• Water Resource Management: Improved forecasting can assist in flood management, water storage, and distribution planning.
• Energy Sector Planning: Accurate weather predictions can help the energy sector plan for weather-related disruptions, such as extreme temperatures or storms that affect power grids.

Action Required:

• Sectoral Integration: Ensure that the weather data generated by Mission Mausam is shared with relevant ministries (e.g., Agriculture, Water Resources, Energy) to develop climate-resilient policies and strategies.

Conclusion: Moving Towards a Climate-Smart India

Mission Mausam is a critical initiative to make India more weather-ready and climate-smart. By improving weather observation networks, enhancing forecasting models, and promoting data-sharing, India can mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events that have become increasingly unpredictable and severe. The success of Mission Mausam will depend on:

• Investing in technology
• Expanding weather coverage
• Engaging local communities and sectors

As India continues to face the challenges posed by climate change, Mission Mausam holds the potential to revolutionize how the country prepares for and responds to extreme weather events, ultimately reducing the toll on lives and livelihoods.