In News:

Need for modification of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) amidst changing geopolitical, environmental, and demographic realities.

Background of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)

• About IWT:
  • Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank.
  • Governs the sharing of the Indus River system waters.
• Historical Context:
  • Origin in the Inter-Dominion Accord of 1948 post-partition.
  • Finalized after negotiations facilitated by the World Bank in 1951.
• Key Provisions:
  • Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) allocated to India.
  • Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) allocated to Pakistan, with limited use allowed for India (e.g., hydropower, irrigation).
  • Establishment of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) for cooperation and dispute resolution.

India’s Perspective

• Rationale for Modification:
  • Increased demographic and agricultural demands.
  • Need for sustainable water management.
  • Acceleration of hydropower projects on western rivers permitted by the treaty.
• Security Concerns: Cross-border terrorism impacting trust in treaty operations.

Pakistan’s Concerns

• Dependence on Indus System:  Critical for agriculture and drinking water as the lower riparian state.
• Potential Impacts of Modification:
  • Fear of reduced water availability.
  • Concerns over India’s hydropower projects altering water flow.

Current Challenges

• Hydropower Projects: Disputes over compliance with treaty provisions regarding hydropower construction.
• Technical Disputes: Divergent interpretations of treaty terms.
• Political Tensions: Strained bilateral relations with minimal diplomatic engagement.
• Climate Change Impacts: Altered precipitation patterns and glacial melt affecting water availability.

Arguments for Modifying the Treaty

• Addressing Contemporary Challenges: Climate change, technological advancements, and increased water demand.
• Securing National Interests:
  • Clarifications on hydropower construction.
  • Improved dispute resolution mechanisms.

Risks of Modifying the Treaty

• Escalation of Tensions: Perceived unilateral actions by Pakistan.
• Political Sensitivities: Domestic opposition in both countries.

Way Forward: A Balanced Approach

• Engagement and Dialogue: Bilateral discussions with potential third-party mediation (e.g., World Bank).
• Cooperation over Conflict: Recognizing mutual benefits of collaboration in water management.
• Adaptation Measures: Incorporate provisions addressing climate change and technological advances.

In News:

Recently, the 16th BRICS Summit was held in Kazan, Russia.

Key Highlights:

Overview of the Bilateral Meeting between PM Modi and President Xi

• Location & Context: The meeting took place on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia (October 23, 2024), marking the first bilateral interaction between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping in nearly five years.
• Significance: The meeting focused on India-China relations, specifically the border dispute that arose following the 2020 standoff in Ladakh.
• Agreement on Border Disengagement: Both leaders welcomed an agreement for "complete disengagement" along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which could pave the way for the resolution of issues that emerged after the Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020.

Key Points of the India-China Border Pact

• Resolution of Border Issues: The agreement addresses longstanding disputes, including in Depsang Plains and Demchok, where Chinese forces had encroached on Indian territory.
• Restoration of Patrolling: Both nations agreed to restore patrols to old patrolling points (PPs) along the LAC in these disputed areas.
• Next Steps: The Special Representatives (SRs) on the India-China boundary will meet soon to oversee the management of peace and tranquility in the border areas and explore mutually acceptable solutions.
• Diplomatic Mechanisms: Dialogue mechanisms at the foreign ministers and other official levels will be utilized to stabilize and rebuild bilateral relations, contributing to regional and global stability.

Strategic Importance of the Bilateral Meeting

• Maintaining Peace and Stability: PM Modi emphasized that differences between India and China should be managed carefully to ensure that broader peace and tranquility are maintained.
• Global Impact: Both leaders affirmed that stable India-China relations would have a positive impact on regional and global peace and contribute to a multipolar world.
• Long-Term Strategic Perspective: The leaders discussed progressing bilateral relations from a strategic perspective, enhancing communication, and exploring cooperation to address developmental challenges.

Key Takeaways from the 16th BRICS Summit

• Expansion and New Membership: The summit saw the inclusion of five new members—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia (pending formalization). This expansion reflects BRICS’s growing influence as a forum representing the Global South.
• Focus on Multilateralism: Leaders emphasized multilateral cooperation to address challenges such as global security, economic growth, and sustainable development.
• Kazan Declaration: The declaration touched upon key issues:
  • Geopolitical Conflicts: It called for dialogue and diplomacy to resolve disputes like the Ukraine crisis and the West Asia conflict.
  • Sanctions and Trade: Criticized unilateral sanctions and their disruptive effects on global trade and development goals.
  • Grain Exchange: A proposal was made to establish a BRICS Grain Exchange, aimed at improving agricultural trade among member states.
  • Financial Integration: There was a push for greater financial integration through the use of local currencies for trade, exemplified by India’s UPI system as a successful model.

Importance of BRICS in the Global Context

• Global Influence: BRICS continues to be a key player in global geopolitics, representing 40% of the world’s population and 26% of global GDP (as of 2023).
• Strategic Goals: BRICS has consistently called for reform of international institutions like the UNSC, IMF, and World Bank, advocating for a more equitable global governance structure.
• Economic Collaboration: The New Development Bank (NDB), established in 2015, continues to play a vital role in funding development projects across BRICS countries, though the group’s influence in global finance remains limited compared to the World Bank.

Challenges Facing BRICS Expansion

• Geopolitical Contradictions: The inclusion of diverse new members (e.g., UAE, Egypt, Iran) could complicate decision-making due to geopolitical rivalries.
• Decision-Making Hurdles: Achieving consensus among an expanding membership will become more challenging. The expansion may dilute the cohesiveness of the group, as seen in other multilateral forums like the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and G77.
• De-Dollarisation Efforts: While BRICS aims to de-dollarize trade and reduce reliance on the SWIFT system, efforts to develop alternatives like a BRICS payment system and BRICS currency are still in nascent stages.
• Economic Disparities: Economic gaps among members—China’s GDP is significantly larger than the combined GDP of other members—could also create imbalances in decision-making.

India’s Role and Strategic Positioning in BRICS

• Geopolitical Balancing: India's participation in BRICS is a strategic maneuver to balance its global position and strengthen ties with emerging economies, particularly in the Global South.
• Diplomatic Relations with Russia: India continues to prioritize its relationship with Russia, which remains crucial for regional security and energy cooperation.
• India-China Ties: The agreement on the India-China border represents a significant shift in relations, with potential for a reset in Sino-Indian ties.

Key Themes in the Kazan Declaration

• Global Governance: Calls for reforming global institutions to give developing nations more representation.
• Energy and Sustainability: Proposals for strengthening energy cooperation, including the creation of energy corridors and the promotion of sustainable energy practices.
• Security: Emphasized the need for universal security by addressing the security concerns of all nations and promoting dialogue over confrontation.

Conclusion: Future of India-China and BRICS Relations

• India-China Relations: The border disengagement pact is a critical step towards stabilizing the India-China relationship, with potential positive impacts on regional security and global geopolitics.
• BRICS’s Growing Influence: As BRICS expands, it faces internal challenges but remains a potent voice for the Global South, aiming to reshape global governance and financial systems.
• India’s Strategic Positioning: India is likely to play a pivotal role in BRICS, especially as the group’s focus shifts towards regional stability, economic cooperation, and de-dollarization in the coming years.